In Preparation
Probabilistic Leak Detection in Water Distribution Networks
Bayesian framework for leak detection and localization under hydraulic uncertainty
Role
First Author
Team
Yeji Kim, Matthew Bartos
Platforms
Python, EPANET, AWS data pipeline, Bayesian inference
Date
Jan 2024 – Dec 2025
Status: Manuscript in preparation — Kim, Y. & Bartos, M. (2026). Probabilistic parameter-estimation framework for discovery of pre-existing leaks in water distribution systems (target: Water Research).

Overview
This work develops a probabilistic framework for leak detection, localization, and system diagnostics in water distribution networks operating under uncertainty in pipe roughness, demand variability, and hydraulic losses. The framework is validated on a pilot-scale water distribution network in Unalakleet, Alaska (4 loops, ~740 population).
Approach
- Python-based hydraulic modeling and data assimilation using EPANET for network-wide state estimation
- Bayesian inference for leak detection and localization, propagating uncertainty in model parameters and field conditions
- SCADA API integration with wireless pressure sensors and adaptive sampling, on an AWS-based data pipeline
- Decision-support tools for pump scheduling and valve control validated against pilot deployment data
Expected Contributions
- Continuous monitoring and anomaly detection under realistic operating uncertainty
- Quantitative leak localization with confidence bounds
- Data-driven operational decisions for utility operators in resource-constrained networks